The susceptibility of oil-importing countries to increase oil prices varies noticeably depending on the extent to which they are net importers and the oil concentration of their economies. According to the results of a quantitative exercise carried out by the IEA in cooperation with the OECD Economics Department and with the assistance of the International Monetary Fund Research Department.
Euro-zone countries, which are highly reliant on oil imports, endured the most in the short term, their GDP dropping by 0.5% and inflation rising by 0.5% in 2007. The United States suffered the least, with GDP falling by 0.3%, mostly because local production meets a bigger share of its oil needs. Japan’s GDP fell 0.4%, with its comparatively low oil concentration compensating to some extent for its almost total reliance on imported oil. In all OECD regions, these losses should start to lessen in the following three years as global trade in non-oil goods and services rebounds. This analysis assumes constant exchange rates.
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